The Large Brief – Bike Snob NYC

Having lived by the Nice Mounted-Gear Increase-Bust Cycle Of The Early twenty first Century, I’d prefer to say I emerged stronger in consequence, however sadly this isn’t true. If something the expertise has deeply traumatized me, as a result of I do know all too properly that irrespective of how excessive we could also be flying we are able to come crashing down once more at any second. That’s why as everybody else runs round fortunately graveling as if the nice occasions won’t ever finish I can’t assist feeling as if this entire factor has “bubble” written throughout it:

I requested the AI to generate a picture for “This Complete Gravel Factor Has Bubble Written All Over It” and that’s what I received. Nice, gravel with bubbles in it. Is there even a tread sample for that? Fast, any person ask Jan Heine!

However sure, there are indicators that the gravel bubble is about to burst. For instance, tastemaker Ultraromance (broadly acknowledged because the Warren Buffet of Jorts) is now providing a bespoke mid-reach brake highway bike:

Hey, a few of us had been using mid-reach highway bikes earlier than they had been cool:

Nonetheless, clearly the medium-reach highway bike is poised to change into the brand new gravel bike.

However to actually know the place gravel stands you could go the place the rubber meets the highway–or the gravel, or the bubble-infused gravel–and that’s Craigslist. See, the bike business and its mouthpieces within the media let you know solely what they need you to consider, but it surely’s on Craigslist the place you get to see what’s actually occurring. That’s why I created the BSNYC GMI:

So what’s been occurring since then? With spring across the nook, are riders rising their gravel holdings, or are they divesting? Nicely, a easy seek for “gravel” on the New York Metropolis Craigslist is kind of revealing. For instance, it yields this Pinarello Dyodo:

Significantly, Pinarello made an electrical gravel bike, they usually named it the “Dyodo?”

Huh, I had no concept that’s what “Raphus cucullatus” meant. If I needed to guess, I’d have thought it was Latin for “The Crotch of the Rapha:”

[Two Raphi cucullati side by side.]

Anyway, I wished to study extra concerning the Pinarello Dodo, so I discovered a evaluate:

I suppose they discovered it heavy:

As a Rivendell rider I’m aghast that anybody would think about 28lbs hefty in any respect, not to mention too hefty to experience with no motor. Hey, right here’s an thought for Pinarello: what a couple of bike that weighs beneath 20lbs and has no motor in any respect? I wager that will be tremendous quick!

Any person ought to look into that.

Anyway, in keeping with the evaluate the Dodo value $8,000 when it was new, and this one’s listed for $4,150. That’s practically a 50% haircut, and with using season imminent no much less! And that’s not the one e-gravel bike on Craigslist, both:

Consider a brand new Turbo Creo SL Comp Carbon EVO (I’m out of breath simply typing that) prices over $7,000:

Which will appear excessive, however be mindful it’s not solely a Turbo, but additionally an SL and an EVO! Specialised are actually going all-in on the car-inspired phrase salad naming conventions, aren’t they? Regardless, that is one other assisted bike supplied at a steep low cost, so clearly the underside is falling out of the electro-gravel market.

However what concerning the different finish of the spectrum? How are metal gravel bikes with mechanical shifting going? Nicely right here’s a Velo Orange Go Hunter:

It was constructed by Bernie!

Apparently I’m purported to know who that’s. After all I do know who Velo Orange is, however in case you don’t they’re the Bizarro Soma:

And right here’s one other Go Hunter, constructed in another way however equally priced:

When analyzing the market, it’s necessary to contemplate why individuals are promoting, and on this case the proprietor desires larger tire clearance:

I can see that the vendor is on the fence, and if I had been his advisor I’d inform him to carry. Tires are getting too vast, and the approaching medium-reach brake development is a transparent indicator that the marketplace for vast tires is about to contract. Issues have been getting too vast for too lengthy, and I believe the entire vast tire factor is quickly going to blow utterly off the rim and depart traders coated in sealant, economically talking.

As for the gravel conversion market, the state of it’s all the time an necessary indicator, and at the moment indicators are not good:

The vendor notes that “inquiries asking whether or not that is nonetheless out there might be ignored,” which suggests he’s aggravated that he’s nonetheless received it, which suggests the market is clearly stagnant.

Additionally, is there anyplace on this planet the place an aluminum Trek is uncommon?